Winter 2024; Severe cold awaits Quebec

Some weather sources, including the Canadian Farmers' Almanac, have predicted cold and heavy snowfall for the winter of 2024 in Canada.

The relationship between snow and Canada is like long-time friends who have always been together. The return of wintry cold is almost as predictable and clear as the sunrise and sunset every day. However, some weather sources, including the Canadian Farmers' Almanac, believe that with modern data-based weather forecasting, they can predict the winter weather in Canada not only in days and weeks but also months and months in advance. Perhaps the Farmers' Almanac is the most prominent source in this regard, providing somewhat specific predictions for months far in advance, such as March of the following year. We have looked at their predictions and collected them here for you to have a more informed understanding of Canada's upcoming season, despite ongoing questions about their methodology.

While winter officially begins in Canada on December 21st, the Canadian Farmers' Almanac states that early December will see the onset of bitterly cold temperatures. Yes, they acknowledge that predicting the weather over such a long period carries risks (including computational errors that can occur even with mild winter winds).

The Canadian Farmers' Almanac predicts that the winter weather in Canada for December of this year will be characterized by very cold temperatures sweeping through the western part of Canada. British Columbia is likely to experience near-normal winter temperatures.

The almanac does not specifically mention Quebec in this section, so it can be assumed that Quebec will also face challenging conditions.

What about January 2024? As mentioned earlier, let's return to these predictions. Apparently, January is stormy across Canada. In Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, the calendars mark a snowy Easter Monday. But what does Environment Canada, a historically respected source, say about this period?

Environment Canada historically predicts four to six months of above-average temperatures across the country from January to March, with an 80% chance of above-average temperatures from January to March.

The weather, on the other hand, reminds us that the polar vortex is getting stronger and colder again, a clear sign of the approach of winter. Does this say anything about March? No, not clearly. Because for an accurate prediction, a lot of time is needed.

However, it is worth noting that there is another season between these two major claimants. Environment Canada told CBC in 2019, "You don't go from summer to winter. We often overlook transitional seasons, but there are plenty of opportunities to enjoy them."

What is the prediction model of the Canadian Farmers' Almanac?

This is a mystery. The Canadian Farmers' Almanac, which has been publishing long-term predictions since 1818, uses a formula with details known only to a person named "Caleb Weatherbee," whose identity is kept secret.

This site says, "Although weather forecasting, especially long-range predictions, remains an inexact science, many faithful followers of the Almanac believe that our forecasts are about 80 to 85 percent accurate."

A University of Illinois study, previously mentioned in this well-known mechanics article, found that the Canadian Farmers' Almanac is only about 52 percent accurate in its long-range analysis. Armed with this information, continue with any decision-making as you see fit.