U.S. report finds fentanyl crossing from Canada ‘not an important part of this story’

Almost none of the fentanyl seized in the United States is of Canadian origin, according to a new report from the Manhattan Institute, a US think tank, released on Canada Day.

The study examined thousands of large fentanyl seizures in 80 US border counties with Canada and Mexico.

The results show that about 99 percent of the fentanyl pills, capsules or tablets and 97 percent of the fentanyl powder, resin or tar found in large land border seizures between 2013 and 2024 were in US-Mexico border counties, and large seizures at the Canadian border have been “relatively rare.”

The figures are consistent with previous estimates of illegal fentanyl imports into the United States.

“The new fentanyl seizure data largely confirms the previously held view that most (illegal fentanyl) enters the United States from the south,” the report says.

“This data calls into question policies and excuses that treat the threat to the northern border as seriously as the southern border.”

Earlier this year, former US President Donald Trump cited fentanyl as one of the reasons for starting a trade war with Canada, saying that the drug was being smuggled across the southern border “at a very high rate” and that border policies were causing many deaths.

As late as late April, Trump even described Canada’s fentanyl imports as being roughly on par with Mexico and China.

“Fentanyl continues to come into our country from China, through Mexico and Canada, killing hundreds of thousands. It must stop now!” he wrote on Truth Social on April 24th.

In response to the trade war, Canada appointed Kevin Brosseau, a former deputy commissioner of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), as its “Fentanyl Commander” to “identify, disrupt and destroy” the drug trade.

However, then-Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau strongly rejected Trump’s argument about fentanyl.

“The legal pretext that the U.S. government is giving for imposing tariffs is that Canada is supposedly not cooperating in the fight against illegal fentanyl. That is completely false,” Trudeau said at a March 4 news conference.

“We are in the same boat”

Of the 4,376 fentanyl seizures between October 2021 and February 2025, only 241 occurred at the Canada-U.S. border, and only 162 of those occurred at the land border between the two countries, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data.

Fewer than 20 kilograms of fentanyl were seized at the Canada-U.S. border in the year before the trade war began, according to U.S. border officials.

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