Liberal lead narrows to 3 points; race in key Ontario state looms

Overall party standings nationally (based on a three-day Nanos poll):

Liberals: 42%

Conservatives: 39%

NDP (New Democratic Party): 9%

Bloc Quebecois: 6%

Greens: 3%

People's Party: 1%

Competition in key states:

1. Ontario (largest electoral market):

Liberals lead with 46%, but their gap with the Conservatives (41%) has narrowed to 5 points. That's half the gap from 10 days ago!

NDP in third place with 8%.

2. Quebec:

Liberals lead with 41%, Bloc Quebecois (26%) second, and Conservatives (21%) third.

3. Prairies (Manitoba, Saskatchewan):

Conservatives in absolute power with 58%, Liberals 28%, and NDP 11%.

4. British Columbia:

Close race: Liberals 39%, Conservatives 38%, NDP 17%.

5. Atlantic (eastern provinces):

Liberals lead by 62%, Conservatives 34%, NDP just 3%.

Leader preference as premier:

Mark Carney (Liberal): 47%

Pierre Pulivor (Conservative): 34%

Jagmeet Singh (NDP): 6%

Gender and age gap:

Women: 49% Liberal, 31% Conservative, 10% NDP.

Men: 46% Conservative, 35% Liberal, 9% NDP.

Youth under 35: 44% Conservative, 31% Liberal.

Middle-aged (55+): 51% Liberal, 32% Conservative.

Key takeaway: A decline in support for the Liberals in Ontario, which is a key factor in winning seats in parliament, could affect the outcome of the election. The race in British Columbia is also very close.

Poll methodology:
Sample of 1,291, margin of error ±2.7% at 95% confidence.

News source