‘The frontrunners are crushing the rest of the parties’ as Liberals lead Conservatives by 5 points on Day 22: Nanos

The Liberals are leading the Conservatives by 5 percentage points, according to the latest Nanos poll, released on the 22nd day of the 36-day federal election campaign.

In the three-day sampling conducted through April 12, the Liberals are leading the Conservatives with 44% national support, ahead of the Conservatives with 39%.

The two parties are followed by the New Democrats with 9%, the Bloc Québécois with 5%, the Greens with 2% and the People’s Party of Canada with 1%.

“The remarkable thing about this election is the concentration of votes between the two main parties,” said Nick Nanos, head of Nanos data research. “As of last night, 83% of Canadians are either voting Liberal (44%) or Conservative (39%), compared to about 67% in the last election. The frontrunners are pushing the other parties aside.”

Regional Support

Support for the Liberal Party is at its highest in Ontario, Atlantic Canada and Quebec, while the Conservatives are strongest in the Prairie and British Columbia provinces.

In populous Ontario, the Liberals are ahead at 52%, ahead of the Conservatives at 37%.

In the Prairie provinces, the Conservatives remain dominant at 59%, while the Liberals have just 29% support.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are also ahead at 44%, six points ahead of the Liberals at 38%.

In Quebec, the Liberals remain ahead at 45%. The Bloc Québécois is second at 23% and the Conservatives are third at 22%.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are ahead at 52%, ten points ahead of the Conservatives at 42%. The New Democratic Party has just 5% support there.

Most Popular Prime Minister

Mark Carney remains ahead of Pierre Poilier on 49% for the preferred candidate for prime minister, with 35% ahead of Pierre Poilier on 35%.

Analysis by gender and age

Among women, 50% say they will vote Liberal, while 32% support Conservative. 11% of women also support the New Democrats.

Among men, 38% support Liberal and 46% support Conservative. Only 5% of men vote New Democrats.

In terms of age, Conservatives perform better among voters under 35; 41% of this age group support Conservative and 37% support Liberal.

In contrast, Liberals are more popular among those over 55. 50% of people in this age group vote Liberal and 36% support Conservative.

Survey Methodology

The survey was conducted by Nanos Research and commissioned by CTV and the Globe and Mail between April 10 and 12, 2025. The sample size was 1,285 people and has an accuracy of ±2.7% and a confidence level of 19 out of 20.

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