PCs have 13-point lead over Liberals 1 week out from Ontario election: Nanos survey

The results of the Nanos Institute’s Ontario election were released on February 20, 2025.

With just one week left until the Ontario election, the Progressive Conservatives, led by Doug Ford, are leading the Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, by 13 points. The two parties are still competing for support in Canada’s largest city.

According to the poll of 936 Ontario voters conducted on February 16, 18 and 19, 44.1 per cent of decided voters support the Progressive Conservatives, 30.7 per cent support the Liberals, 16.6 per cent support the New Democratic Party (NDP) and 6.6 per cent support the Green Party.

Among all voters, both decided and undecided, 40.1 per cent support the Progressive Conservatives, 27.9 per cent support the Liberals, 15.1 per cent support the NDP and 6 per cent support the Green Party. Another 1.9 per cent chose “other” and 8.9 per cent were undecided.

“The Progressive Conservatives are leading across all age groups and among men, while among women, the two leading parties, the Conservatives and Liberals, are closely tied,” wrote Nick Nanos, senior data scientist at Nanos, in his analysis.

Nightly polls conducted since the beginning of this month show no significant change in people’s first choice for premier.

That said, 41.3 per cent of respondents want Doug Ford to lead Ontario, while 25.4 per cent support Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie. 14.2 per cent also chose New Democratic Leader Marit Stiles and 6.9 per cent support Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner.

In the city of Toronto, the Liberals are slightly ahead of the Progressive Conservatives (38.6%) with 39.7% support. In this area, 16.8% support the New Democrats and 3.6% support the Greens. But in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), the gap between the two major parties is wider, where 50.8% of voters support the Progressive Conservatives, compared to 27.7% for the Liberals, 13.6% for the NDP and 2.3% for the Greens.

The random poll, with a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points, was deemed valid 19 out of 20 times.

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