Mark Carney's Liberals lead Pierre Pulivor's Conservatives by 5 points in latest Nanos poll

Political analyst Scott Reid explains what to expect as party leaders enter the second week of the campaign.
CTVNews.ca will be releasing exclusive polling data each morning throughout the federal election campaign. Check back each morning for the latest figures from the three-day sampling by Nanos Research—the official pollster for City News and the Globe and Mail.

The federal Liberals have emerged as the frontrunners in a close election with a five-point lead over the Conservatives. The Conservatives, who have enjoyed steady support, are in a two-way race with the Liberals on Day 8 of the federal election campaign.

Mark Carney’s Liberals are leading Pierre Pouliore’s Conservatives (37%) with 42% of the vote, according to Nanos Research’s first three-day sampling of the campaign. The New Democratic Party (NDP) is next with 11%, followed by the Bloc Québécois (5%), the Green Party of Canada (3%) and the People’s Party of Canada (2%).

Nick Nanos, senior data scientist at Nanos Research, says support for the Liberals has “increased dramatically.” “Strategic voting appears to be the driving force behind the Liberals’ 5-point lead, as voters mobilize to meet the Conservative challenge. This dynamic has transformed the political landscape and marginalized smaller parties,” he said in a statement.

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Regional data shows the Liberals have the highest support in Quebec at 47 per cent and the lowest in Priory at 35 per cent. The Conservatives are in the opposite position: highest support in Priory (43 per cent) and lowest in Quebec (21 per cent).

Who is the preferred prime minister?
48 per cent of Canadians prefer Mark Carney to be prime minister, while 32 per cent have Pierre Pouliore. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is a distant second at 4 per cent.

(Nanos Research)
“In a world shaken by the politics of the Trump era, Canadians are focused on who will lead the country through this turbulent time,” Nanos added. “The stakes are high and this is just the beginning.”

Methodology
CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research Observational Poll, March 27-29, 2025, sample=1,285, margin of error ±2.7 percentage points in 19 out of 20.

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